Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Climate Change

There is something bothering me about this Climate Change thing. We are told that melting ice at the poles will cause sea levels to rise and flood the lowlands. There are all manner of charts and graphs to demonstrate this.

I set to wondering about the problem and started by looking at this picture.
iceglass2 I cant vouch for the validity of this picture but you get the idea. That is one big chunk of ice and when it melts it will end up as a whole big puddle of water, but how much?

The North polar Ice Cap covers about 1.71 million km² and contains about 2.6 million km³ of ice. Ice is approximately 8.3 % less dense than water. The density of ice is 0.9167 g/cm3 at 0 °C, whereas water has a density of 0.9998 g/cm³ at the same temperature. When water freezes, it increases in volume (about 9% for freshwater).  So if it melts will there be 2.6 million km³ of water added to the seas. No! There will only be 2.34 million km³  of water. 260,000 km³  less and that 2.34 million km³ will fill the space the ice filled under the water.

So when this lump of ice melts its volume will be roughly 9% less than it is currently. This is where I am having trouble. If water increases in volume when it turns to ice, then it reduces in volume when it changes from ice to its liquid state. So it will be roughly 10% smaller. That is about the same amount of ice that is above the sea in my picture.
image OK so we can do a small experiment to demonstrate this. Take a glass and fill it with ice cubes, then fill the glass with water. It should look something like this:-

iceglass

Now leave it until all the ice has melted and you will find that there is space in the top of the glass. So if there is less water than the water & ice we started with, where will the flooding come from when the ice caps melt?

I know someone with more knowledge than me will come along and debunk this, but hey, I’m just thinking out loud.

It is however worth reading up and below is a list of books that may be of interest. Please remember that  some of the people and organisations who wrote these volumes are paid research grants by Governments to justify Climate Change Taxes. What you have to decide is would they lie to keep themselves in lucrative employment?

A number of top scientists have left the program in the last few years because they doubt the validity of their research.

"NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News Fall 2007". nsidc.org. Retrieved 27 March 2008. 
"Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis". National Snow and Ice Data Center. Retrieved 9 May 2010. 
"State of the Cryosphere / Arctic and Antarctic Standardized Anomalies and Trends Jan 1979 - Jul 2009". National Snow and Ice Data Center. Retrieved 24 April 2010. 
Thompson, Elvia. "Recent Warming of Arctic May Affect Worldwide Climate". NASA. Retrieved 2 October 2012. Warming trends like those found in these studies could greatly affect ocean processes, which, in turn, impact Arctic and global climate. 
"Antarctic Ice Melt". OSS Foundation. Retrieved 22 October 2013. 
"Is Antarctica Melting?". NASA. Retrieved 22 October 2013. 
Langway, Chester (April 2008). "The history of early polar ice cores, Cold Regions Science and Technology" 52 (2). pp. 101–117. 
"Polar ice is melting more faster than predicted". The Watchers. Retrieved 18 May 2015.
Thompson, Elvia. "Recent Warming of Arctic May Affect Worldwide Climate". NASA. Retrieved 2 October 2012. 
Videl, John (19 September 2012). "Arctic Ice Shrinks 18% against Record, Sounding Climate Change Alarm Bells". The Guardian (London). Retrieved 3 October 2012. 
National Snow and Ice Data Center A real hole near the pole, 4 September 2012
Grima, Cyril G.; Kofman, W.; Mouginot, J.; Phillips, R. J.; Herique, A.; Biccardi, D.; Seu, R.; Cutigni, M. (2009). "North polar deposits of Mars: Extreme purity of the water ice". Geophysical Research Letters 36 (3). doi:10.1029/2008GL036326. 
Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. National Geographic Society. Retrieved 28 October 2008. 
Parnell, Brid-Aine. "New Horizons Probe Snaps Possible Polar Ice Cap On Pluto". Forbes. Retrieved 2015-05-20.

PS Did you spot “Polar ice is melting more faster than predicted.”

12 comments:

A Heron's View said...

Maffi I don't doubt your calculations and I am not convinced that the melting of the icecaps has anything to do with the industrial toxic gases of our age. I think it has more to do with what is happening to the Sun, also I suggest that there a cycle of high and low water depths on the planet i.e. of extreme ice and no ice and what we are experiencing is the 26 - 21, 000 year Milankovitch cycle.

nb Chuffed said...

Hi Maffi
That used to puzzle me too. The rise in sea levels seems to have more to do with the water getting warmer, so having a greater volume, and a higher rate of melting from ice-sheets and glaciers (which are mostly on the land). This link explains it quite well: http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-sea-level-rise/
Whatever, it's happening!
best wishes
Debby

Kevin Meakin said...

You're forgetting about the millions of km3 of ice on Greenland and Antarctica. This ice is not displacing any water at present, but will massively add to the oceans volume if it all melts.

nb Achernar said...

Your calculations may well be accurate for the ice that is floating in the water when it melts but it does not account for the ice caps currently on land ie Greenland and a lot of Antartica. This ice when it melts adds to the volume of water. Maybe.

Tom and Jan said...

Nothing wrong with the theory... provided the ice is in the water! Plenty of ice on land which is melting.

A Heron's View said...

Sincerely wishing You A Very Happy Birthday Maffi - must be nice to be 21 again :)

Carol said...

And on a lighter note Happy Birthday Maffi!!

Maffi said...

Ah but how thick is the ice covering the land compared to the ice in the sea?

Don McCoskrie said...

There is very large amounts of ice in Antarctica and Greenland. The other thing causing sea level rise is that caused by the increase of sea surface temperature and the resulting resulting expansion of the water.
Some reading: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

Tom and Jan said...

Some of the ice in Antarctica is two miles thick!

Cut and Rune said...

The average depth of ice in Antartica (on land) is just over 2000metres (with a maximum of 4776 metres. Greenland is pretty much the same. That'll be an awful lot of water to add to the oceans if it melts.

Malcolm Thomas said...

I checked my physics text books and you're correct.
I know it's selfish but by the time it all melts I'll be long gone and until then I don't think what I put in my G&T will make any difference.